Wimbledon 2021 Women’s Draw: Preview & Predictions

Though horribly cliché, it’s true that when it comes to the women’s game: “expect the unexpected”. Unlike the men’s game, where Djokovic, Federer and Nadal have dominated the Grand Slams over recent years, the women’s game has thrown up numerous different champions, with 7 of the last 8 Majors going to different people. In recent years, Osaka has been arguably most consistent, but she is unfortunately still taking time away from the tour for health reasons, so is not at these Championships. Halep, the defending champion, is also not in the draw, as she is unable to shake off the calf injury sustained in the clay swing: they will both be sorely missed & I wish them both the best in their recovery.

In short, predicting how the women’s Grand Slam will unfold is a near impossible task, but without these two established Champions, the field is even more open, making predictions 10x harder. However, I’m of course going to give it a go and laugh at how wrong I was in 2 weeks time:

QUARTER 1:

Projected: Ashleigh Barty (1) vs. Bianca Andreescu (5)

H2H: Barty leads their h2h 1-0

Ash Barty is enjoying a stellar season, having won 3 tour titles this year already and reached the Quarter Finals in all but 2 of the events she has played in 2021. She doesn’t have too bad a draw here either, but there are fitness concerns surrounding the World No.1, after retiring in her past two clay events. If she isn’t 100% fit, this mini section could open up for others. One danger for Barty is home favourite Jo Konta, whom she could face in Round 3. Whilst Konta is managing a long-standing knee issue herself, having to pull out of Eastbourne as a precaution ahead of Wimbledon, she started her grass campaign with a 4th WTA title in Nottingham, 1st on Grass, and so will be coming into Wimbledon rested and full of confidence. I think this match up could happen and on Centre, with the British crowd support, I can see Konta upsetting the World No.1. Whoever wins out of Barty/Konta will likely reach the Quarters. There are players like Sevastova, Bertens or recent Grand Slam Champion Krejcikova that could threaten in the 4th, but drawing on their Grand Slam experience I can see the winner of Barty v. Konta coming through that one too.

Bianca Andreescu headlines the other end of this quarter, but has a difficult draw, and as a result I also don’t see the no.5 seed reaching the Quarter Finals either. She has a really tough opener against the experienced Alize Cornet, who herself has performed well in recent grass court events, reaching the semi finals in Berlin, beating Andreescu enroute. I can see a repeat here. There are also other players in this section who have played themselves into serious form on grass that could upset Andreescu and go further: Azarenka, Kontaveit and Kasatkina have all reached the Quarter Finals or greater in the grass events pre Wimbledon. Of those I’m leaning towards Kasatkina taking the spot: she has reached the QF at Wimbledon before and has less question marks around her fitness at present: Azarenka withdrew from her recent match in Hamburg & Kontaveit played today in the Eastbourne final and thus may not have enough recovery time to mount a serious challenge at Wimbledon.

Prediction: Johanna Konta vs. Daria Kasatkina

Winner: Daria Kasatkina

QUARTER 2:

Projected: Elina Svitolina (3) vs. Serena Williams (6)

H2H: Williams leads their h2h 5-1

Elina Svitolina is the top seed in Quarter 2 and having a fairly muted season by her usually high standards. However, she can take confidence from reaching the Semi Finals at Wimbledon in her last outing back in 2019 and I have a feeling, despite a tricky draw for the Ukrainian, that she could go deep again. Her first opponent, Alison Van Uytvanck, is always a tricky customer on grass and will be again, as the Belgian has played herself into form in recent ITF and WTA grass court events. This will be close and I wouldn’t be surprised if this did end in an upset, but I’m backing Svitolina’s quality to get her through that match. After that she could play Anisimova in the 2nd, Giorgi in the 3rd and then French Open finalist Pavlyuchenkova in the 4th. All have the game to trouble Svitolina, with the latter two in particular in red hot form of late: Pavlyuchenkova reaching a first Slam final on clay and Giorgi beating four seeds (including Pliskova and Sabalenka) on her way to the Eastbourne semi finals this week. However, with Giorgi having to retire in that Eastbourne semi final to Kontaveit & Pavlyuchenkova’s only grass preparation a defeat in Eastbourne to Ostapenko (in which she won only four games) question marks surround them physically and on that basis I am sticking with Svitolina.

At the other end of this quarter sits the 23 time Grand Slam Champion Serena Williams. Can she finally reach that all elusive 24th Major and match Court’s record of having won the most Grand Slams in history: male or female? It’s a task that has come close but proved fruitful up to now and whilst I would love to see her do it, the draw gods have not been kind. I think Serena will have little trouble in reaching Round 3, but there she could end up meeting Angelique Kerber – a repeat of the 2018 Wimbledon Final. Kerber won on that day and has just won a home tournament in Hamburg on the grass this week: perfect preparation for a Wimbledon run. Therefore, I think this match up could spell déjà vu for Serena. The winner of that will likely play Belinda Bencic in Round 4. Bencic hasn’t had the best year but did make the final in a grass tournament in Berlin last week and has a relatively smooth draw to the last 16, which I think could leave her in good stead for attacking the 2nd week of Wimbledon head on

Prediction: Elina Svitolina vs. Belinda Bencic

Winner: Belinda Bencic

QUARTER 3:

Projected: Karolina Pliskova (8) vs. Sofia Kenin (4)

H2H: Pliskova leads their h2h 4-0

Karolina Pliskova headlines Quarter 3 and can always be considered a threat, with her serve a potent weapon. In the past she has reached the final in all the UK based warm up WTA events, winning Nottingham and Eastbourne, so has shown how effective her game can be on this surface. However, at the Slams she is surprisingly inconsistent, not reaching the Quarter Finals of a Major since her SF run at the Australian Open back in 2019. At Wimbledon, in particular, Pliskova has failed to get past the 4th Round and only reached that stage on 2 occasions previously: for me she’s vulnerable to an early exit. There are plenty of players in this mini section that show promise on Grass: Vekic, Riske, Martincova, Samsonova, Garcia to name a few. But for me the one person that really stands out as a contender from this section is Petra Kvitova. The 2x Wimbledon Champion is a fierce competitor and has had good preparation on the grass this year reaching the Semi Finals this week in Hamburg, before losing to eventual champion Kerber in a tight 3 set battle. It is not an easy draw for her, but having reached the 4th round in 5 of the past 8 Grand Slams, she has shown remarkable consistency at Grand Slam level and I think that can help her to go deep at Wimbledon.

Rounding out this quarter is the talented young American Sofia Kenin. She is another who has shown recent form at the Grand Slams, reaching the 4th round in all but one of the last 5 Slams she has played (that run includes her 2020 Australian Open Win and her run to the final of the 2020 French Open). She has never got past Round 2 at Wimbledon, but with her draw I think she will better that this year. I don’t see Kenin being troubled by Wang in her opener or by Brengle/Mchale in the 2nd. In the 3rd she could play Danielle Collins or Veronika Kudermetova, who can both on their day be tough for any opponent, but I’d still back Kenin to come through that in 3. The fourth round offers the biggest test for Kenin, where she could play Madison Keys or Elise Mertens. Both have put in battling performances in recent grass events, so they will feel conditioned to grass and up for a run at Wimbledon. However, I think if Kenin can bring her A-game she can also come through that stern test

Prediction: Petra Kvitova vs. Sofia Kenin

Winner: Petra Kvitova

QUARTER 4:

Projected: Iga Swiatek (7) vs. Aryna Sabalenka (2)

H2H: N/A – they have never played each other on tour

Since breaking through to win her first Grand Slam Title at the French Open last year, Iga Swiatek hasn’t looked back. She has had a great 2021 season so far, winning her first WTA 500 and WTA 1000 titles to cement herself firmly within the top 10 of the World Rankings. On that form it is hard to look past her having a strong showing here, but I have my doubts. With no grass events played last year, Swiatek is one of the youngsters who come into these Championships with not much grass court experience behind her, and thus she is still trying to find her feet on this surface. She has never won at Wimbledon before and comes off 2 matches at Eastbourne, where she looked to me unconvincing, narrowly avoiding defeat to an in-form Heather Watson, before losing 12 of the last 13 games in a 3 set defeat to Kasatkina in the Round of 16. I think she can definitely better her previous Wimbledon outing and win a couple of matches, but could see her struggling vs. Martic in the 3rd. If she does win that she’s likely to play Muguruza, a former Wimbledon Champion or the in-form and tricksy Ons Jabeur, who is coming into this having just won her first WTA title in Birmingham. I can see Jabeur carrying that momentum into Wimbledon and making the 4th to potentially play Swiatek/Martic, with the Tunisian finding a way through.

Closing out the women’s draw, following Halep’s withdrawl, is Aryna Sabalenka. The Belarussian had a 2020 season to remember, and 2021 hasn’t been too bad either. She kicked off this season in perfect fashion to win Abu Dhabi and take her winning streak at the time to 15 matches. She has also this season won Madrid and recorded her best showings at the Australian Open and French Open. Her draw isn’t too bad either, although there are some notable players early on that could provide a stern test to the Belarussian. Niculescu in Round 1 is a tricksy player and one that could force Sabalenka into wild errors if pressured. But then I could also see Sabalenka, with her weight of shot, winning this one comfortably, if she’s feeling confident and hitting her spots – a tough one to call. If she gets through that, she could play home favourite Katie Boulter, who has in the warm up events shown glimpses of her old self pre-injury and with the crowd support could also be a tough encounter for Sabalenka. For me though, I think Sabalenka can navigate these and potentially Alexandrova in the 3rd to reach Round 4, but there I’m concerned. There are a number of dangerous players she could meet: Maria Sakkari, Shelby Rogers, Elena Rybakina. For me, Rybakina is having a great year and coming into these Championships full of confidence off the back of an amazing run to the French Open Quarter Finals (narrowly losing to Pavlyuchenkova 9-7 in the 3rd), as a well as a strong run to the Eastbourne semi finals.

I can see her upsetting a few players on the way to another Slam Quarter Final.

Prediction: Ons Jabeur vs. Elena Rybakina

Winner: Elena Rybakina

Semi Finals:

Bencic def. Kasatkina

Kvitova def. Rybakina

Finals:

Kvitova def. Bencic